May 2008 Monthly Archive

May 18, 2008

McCain woos some Hispanics, others see baggage

PHOENIX (Reuters) - Arturo Leyva has voted Democratic in the past, like many U.S. Hispanics. This year, the candidate catching his eye happens to be a Republican: John McCain.

"He has a lot to offer Hispanics, and I think I may vote for him," Leyva, 45, said at his cellular phone store in central Phoenix.

U.S. Hispanic support for the Republican Party, small but growing steadily over the past decade, has ebbed in the past year, following a bruising battle over illegal immigration.

Republican lawmakers last June sank a comprehensive immigration bill -- co-sponsored by McCain -- that would have created a path to citizenship for many of the 12 million mostly Hispanic undocumented immigrants in the United States.

However, Hispanic voters may see a sympathetic candidate in the Arizona senator, some analysts say.

"Hispanic voters have not yet gelled for any candidate yet. In this election it is up for grabs," said Paul Brace, a political science professor at Rice University.

"The interest among Hispanics may be more in John McCain the man than in the Republican Party," he added.

The Arizona senator faces either Democratic Sen. Barack Obama or Sen. Hillary Clinton in the November election, who have majority support among the 18 million or so eligible Latino voters, according to the most recent survey.

Hispanics like Leyva, 45, say they like the fact that McCain teamed with Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy on the immigration bill, which was later killed by the Republicans.

Others say they find common ground with his anti-abortion record -- an issue for Latinos, many of whom are Roman Catholics -- together with his support for small businesses and the U.S. military, in which many Hispanics serve.

"His values are the same as, rather similar to, our values," said Ramon Perez, 42, an electrician in Los Angeles who has voted Democratic but now is weighing his options.

"I will vote for Hillary, and if not her, then maybe McCain."

TIME FOR A CHANGE

In the last general election four years ago, exit polls found that Hispanic turnout for President George W. Bush picked up by several points over his first win in 2000, although Hispanic support subsequently eroded.

A report by the Pew Hispanic Center in December, before McCain emerged as the Republican front-runner, found that just 23 percent of Hispanic registered voters called themselves Republicans -- 5 points fewer than in 2006.

McCain's ability to parlay Hispanics' tentative interest into votes may prove key in a close race in November, especially in swing states with significant Latino populations, such as Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Florida.

To that end, the Arizona Latino Republican Association, which urges voters to "Make the Switch - Democrat to Republican," is helping McCain to strengthen ties to Hispanics in his home state.

His campaign also launched a Web site reaching out to Hispanic voters on the Mexican Cinco de Mayo festival, or May 5th holiday, which is celebrated across the U.S. Southwest, and he is also planning to speak at the annual convention of Mexican-American advocacy group the National Council of La Raza in July.

While Hispanics may be more open to McCain, Brace cautioned that the Republican Party's record on issues including immigration may prove off-putting to some, a view born out among some Latino voters.

"He could be a nice guy, but I don't trust his party on immigration," said Clinton supporter Pedro Marquez, 46, the proprietor of a cowboy clothing store in downtown Phoenix.

Other Latinos who voted for Bush said a wobbly economy and an unresolved conflict in Iraq gave them doubts about backing a Republican this time around.

"The last two terms of Republican presidency didn't make very good decisions," said Lourdes Leon, 45, who said she had voted Republican in the past and owns a Mexican taqueria, grocery and bakery in Fairfield, Ohio.

"The deficit and the recession we live in right now is hard, and the war is not right, so I believe we need a change."

(Additional reporting by Andrea Hopkins in Fairfield, Ohio and Syantani Chatterjee in Los Angeles; Editing by Doina Chiacu)

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Tim Gaynor - Reuters | Sunday, May 18, 2008 | Topic: Breaking Story Highlights

 

New tremor hits China

BEICHUAN, China (Reuters) - A fresh tremor in southwestern China killed three people on Sunday, injured 1,000 others and sent thousands of people already traumatized by last week's massive earthquake fleeing their homes into the streets.

The tremor, the strongest aftershock since the May 12 earthquake, hit Jiangyou city in Sichuan, Xinhua state news agency said, on the eve of three days of national mourning for the dead that now stands officially at 32,500.

The fresh tremor, which measured 5.7 in magnitude, brought down a large number of houses, damaged 235 miles of roads and six bridges, rescue authorities said late on Sunday.

In the provincial capital, Chengdu, some 125 miles south of the epicenter, thousands fled swaying buildings, Xinhua said.

More than six days after the main quake of 7.9 magnitude rattled Sichuan province, authorities are worried by the aftershocks and the build up of water in blocked rivers and have tried to stop people from entering the affected area.

Xinhua said the most dangerous mass of water was only about 3 km (2 miles) upstream from Beichuan town where rescue workers saved a man on Sunday from under the remains of a hospital.

China says it expects the final death toll to exceed 50,000. About 4.8 million people have lost their homes.

Three days of national mourning were declared from Monday, with flags flying at half mast, public entertainment suspended and a three-minute silence observed to mark exactly one week since the quake, the government website www.gov.cn said

State television said the Olympic torch relay through China would also be suspended for three days.

SURVIVOR'S LEG AMPUTATED

Late on Sunday, a woman was also pulled out of the rubble in Yingxiu after a 56-hour rescue operation during which her legs were amputated, Xinhua reported. A man was earlier found alive in a collapsed office building in Maoxian county, it said.

The overall death toll stands at nearly 32,500, Xinhua said, with 220,000 more injured. A further 9,500 people are thought to be still buried under the rubble in Sichuan, but most are feared dead.

The military moved to quell concerns over the safety of its nuclear facilities, including the main nuclear weapons research laboratory, close to the affected zone.

"I could say in a responsible manner that all these facilities are safe and secure," Ma Jian, a senior People's Liberation Army officer, told a news conference in Beijing. "There is no problem at all."

Offers of help have flooded in and rescue teams with sniffer dogs and specialized equipment from Japan, Russia, Taiwan, South Korea, the United States and Singapore are assisting. Donations from home and abroad have topped 6 billion yuan ($858 million).

Statistics from past earthquakes show some victims have survived up to nearly a fortnight under rubble.

Yet Fujiya Koji, head of the Japanese rescue team in Sichuan, conceded: "Generally by this stage the likelihood of survival is low. They say they have been finding some in Beichuan and we'll certainly keep trying."

HU VISITS

President Hu Jintao visited distraught families in Yinghua town and said he shared their pain. "We will try every effort to save your people once there is the slightest hope and possibility," he said, according to Xinhua.

In Beichuan, hard hit by the quake and which many people fled on Saturday following warnings a dam may collapse, worried relatives quarreled with police who tried to prevent them entering the area, citing safety reasons.

"I've traveled all this way, and I don't know where my father is," said Chen Shiquan, who had come back from work in the neighboring province of Qinghai to look for his father. "To let me get this far and then not let me in is too cruel."

At least three lakes, formed after rocks blocked a river, had burst their banks but caused no casualties. Officials were monitoring 21 cases where landslides had dammed rivers, Xinhua reported.

Dozens of schools collapsed in the area, crushing to death thousands of children taking classes at the time. Officials pulled out more bodies from the wreckage of the local primary school in Beichuan on Sunday. Forty-one corpses were laid out in front of the school.

A strong smell of ammonia and incense hung over the town, which was littered with massive boulders from a nearby mountain slope. All of the buildings in the town were either destroyed or appeared beyond repair.

China's Health Ministry said on Sunday there had been no disease outbreaks so far.

(Additional reporting by John Ruwitch and Ben Blanchard; Editing by Jeremy Laurence and Richard Balmforth)

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Chris Buckley - Reuters | Sunday, May 18, 2008 | Topic: Today's Top News

 

Obama developing a McCain strategy before winning nomination

Making up for lost time, Barack Obama is dashing full-tilt into the general-election fight against Republican John McCain without waiting for the Democratic marathon to end.

He's running down McCain more often than the woman he's nominally still fighting for his own party's nomination. And he's running after white working-class voters, independents, Hispanics, Catholics and Jews - voting blocs that will be important in the November election and with whom he's had mixed successes.

Even as Obama tries to fight off Hillary Rodham Clinton in the few remaining primaries, he is campaigning in states that have already held elections and vowing to return to states where he lost to Clinton. His campaign has sent teams into battleground states, set up a program for signing up millions of Democrats over the next six months and is developing ads to use against McCain.

History shows that the earlier a candidate nails down the party nomination, the better his chances of winning. Obama did not have the luxury of an early win, so he did the next best thing. His team is seeking to tether McCain to President Bush, emphasizing McCain's support for the Iraq war and for renewing Bush tax cuts.

"Obviously, we don't want to wake up the morning after we become the nominee and not be prepared," said Obama campaign manager David Plouffe. Offering a campaign line Obama is already using, he said, "By November, every voter will know that McCain is offering a third Bush term."

Democratic strategists agree that Obama has his work cut out for him in defining himself on his own terms and countering assertions that he's inexperienced, elitist and out of step with the rest of the country.

"Partly what he's got to do is define his appeal to middle-class voters," said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman. "I don't think that will be hard. But it's something he has to do, provide some focus on their economic pain and on the issues that are animating him."

At first glance, the political landscape couldn't be better for the first-term Illinois senator, along with Democrats in general. Republicans are being pulled down by the unpopular Iraq war, the struggling economy and Bush's low approval ratings.

Yet McCain appears to have escaped much of the criticism directed at fellow Republicans. Polls show the Arizona senator to be competitive with Obama in a general-election matchup.

Obama's inability to win primaries in many big industrial battleground states, or to appeal to white working-class voters or to many older people, particularly women, make him vulnerable - as does his lack of economic and foreign-policy experience.

"Clearly Obama has to give people more confidence in his ability in protecting the country, where McCain has a huge advantage, wider than Bush enjoyed over John Kerry four years ago," said pollster Andrew Kohut, president of the independent Pew Research Center.

Most of those questioned in a Pew survey this month described McCain as "a centrist whose views are fairly close to their own." The same voters see Obama as far to the left of themselves.

Obama's team began a transition to general-election mode weeks ago.

He is reaching out to Hispanics, the nation's fastest-growing minority, and to Jewish voters. Both groups, while traditionally Democratic, eye him with some suspicion. And he's started to wear an American flag lapel pin.

Obama's team is trying to find ways to counter what former Bush speechwriter Michael Gerson calls "the Obama narrative," an effort by Republicans to portray Obama as a man of the academic left, out of touch with everyday American concerns.

Despite his roots as a child of a single mother who sometimes used food stamps, Republicans will remind voters of Obama's schooling at Columbia and Harvard Law, and his comments at a San Francisco fundraiser that those in small towns grow "bitter" and cling to religion and guns.

Obama also was hurt by the comments of his controversial former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. The candidate first said he couldn't disown the pastor, but when Wright kept up his remarks and the political heat increased, Obama dismissed him as a "relic of an angry generation."

Obama has won much of his support from upscale voters, young people and blacks. But he's been having trouble connecting with white blue-collar workers.

A step in his outreach was the campaign's decision last month to hold more events portraying Obama among ordinary Americans - downing domestic beer in crowded taverns, eating breakfast at lunch counters, greeting factory workers, touring auto plants and visiting construction sites.

The tactic has proved more effective than the earlier focus on big rallies, said David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist. "We're slow learners," he joked.

Primary election results from across the country have shown Obama has trouble winning support among Hispanics, too. While Hispanics traditionally vote Democratic, Republicans have been making inroads. Bush drew 44 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004 - the highest of any Republican presidential candidate - and McCain is polling as high as 41 percent.

As for McCain, Obama's aides are developing ads intended to link the Arizona senator to Bush and chip away at his image as a maverick.

McCain's age may also work to Obama's benefit. McCain turns 72 in August and would be the oldest man to be elected to a first term as president. Some voters, Republicans and Democrats alike, express reluctance to vote for candidates over 70 years old, some surveys show. But advisers suggest Obama should be wary of approaching the topic directly, for fear of it backfiring.

Obama continues to face questions about his commitment to the Jewish community, another usually solid Democratic bloc. Some voters may be upset by his stated willingness to enter presidential-level talks with leaders of countries such as Iran and Syria.

"If you look at my writings and my history, my commitment to Israel and the Jewish people is more than skin-deep and it's more than political expediency," Obama told The Atlantic magazine.

Obama's next major decision will be selecting a running mate. Although some in both the Obama and Clinton camps have held out an Obama-Clinton combo as a "dream ticket," few close to either candidate expect to see it.

Among the speculation: If he wants to pick a woman, because of all the disappointed Clinton supporters, it might be someone like Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius. If he wants to deal with McCain's advantage on national security, he might pick someone like former Sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson or Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia.

And if he is looking for an Electoral College advantage, he might pick either Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell or Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, both of whom were Clinton supporters.

"I think the first important thing is for Obama and Mrs. Clinton to arrange a graceful exit for her and an endorsement for him by her with no conditions. It's essential that those who lost don't feel cheated," Georgetown University political scientist Stephen Wayne said.

Democratic strategist Doug Schoen suggests Obama should "think outside the box" and go for someone outside the party as his running mate, such as New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, an independent, or Republican Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel, a Vietnam veteran.

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TOM RAUM - AP | Sunday, May 18, 2008 | Topic: Breaking Story

 

May 17, 2008

Thousands flee China quake area over flood fears

BEICHUAN, China -- Thousands of Chinese earthquake victims fled areas near the epicenter Saturday, fearful of floods from rivers blocked by landslides rattled loose in this week's powerful temblor.

Soldiers carried older people out of Beichuan town _ one of the areas hit hardest by the magnitude 7.9 quake Monday _ while survivors cradled babies on a road jammed with vehicles and people.

A policeman told The Associated Press that rescue officials were worried that water from a choked river would inundate the town.

"The river was jammed up by a landslide, now that may burst. That is what we are worried about," the policeman said as he hurried by, not giving his name.

"I'm very scared. I heard that the water will be crashing down here," said Liang Xiao, one of the people fleeing. "If that happens, there will be over 10 yards of water over our heads."

The official Xinhua News Agency said earlier that a lake in Beichuan county "may burst its bank at any time," but did not give details on why the water was rising. Residents left homes for higher ground, but 46 seriously injured were still at risk, the agency said.

Farther north, a mountain sheared off by the quake cut the Qingzhu River and smothered three villages in a valley near Qingchuan town. No traces remained of the villages, swallowed up by a huge mound of earth behind which the cut-off river's waters were backing up.

Xinhua said more than 2,000 people were being evacuated near Qingchuan.

Rain began to fall in Qingchuan county on Saturday evening for the first time since the initial quake, the agency reported _ increasing the risk of floods and more building collapses, and worsening living conditions for homeless survivors sheltered under tents and makeshift canopies.

The confirmed death toll rose Saturday to 28,881, Cabinet spokesman Guo Weimin said.

But more than 10,600 people remained buried in Sichuan province, Xinhua reported, and the government has previously said at least 50,000 people were believed killed in the disaster.

Survivors still were being found under destroyed buildings five days after the quake. A 52-year-old man buried in the ruins for 117 hours was pulled to safety in Beichuan, Xinhua reported. Two other survivors were later found alive 120 hours after the quake elsewhere in Sichuan, the agency said.

Rescuers worked through the day _ using saws, drills and their hands _ to free a woman pinned under a crumpled six-story apartment building in Longhua town after 124 hours in the rubble, a day after another person was pulled alive from the same place.

Covered in mud and dust, 31-year-old Bian Gengfeng was taken away by medics who covered her eyes with a towel.

Bian's 10-year-old daughter watched the rescue.

"Uncle called me yesterday and said Mom was alive and I should come and wait here," said Luo Ting.

The man pulled from the rubble the day before prompted the rescue, telling rescuers that he had been talking with a woman trapped in the building that had been housing for chemical workers.

The vast majority of survivors are rescued in the first 24 hours after a disaster, with the chances of survival dropping each day, said Dr. Irving "Jake" Jacoby of the University of California, San Diego, who heads a medical assistance team that responded to a 1989 earthquake in California, Hurricane Katrina and other disasters.

A person trapped but uninjured could survive a week or even 10 days and in extreme circumstances two weeks or more, he said.

Rescue teams from South Korea, Singapore and Russia began work Saturday. They joined a Japanese specialist group, which was the first international rescue crew to arrive in the disaster area after China dropped its initial reluctance to accepting foreign personnel.

A U.S. Air Force cargo plane loaded with tents, lanterns and 15,000 meals left Hawaii on Saturday, the first aid flight from the United States to help in Sichuan province. Another Air Force delivery was to fly in from Alaska.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice expressed sympathy over the tragedy to Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi during a Saturday phone call and said Washington was ready to give further support, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The United Nations announced a grant of up to $7 million from its Central Emergency Response Fund, to be used by U.N. agencies and programs.

Aftershocks continued, also shaking President Hu Jintao as he praised rescue workers during a tour of the destruction.

"You carried out the order of the party, government and the central military committee determinedly. You contributed to the relief efforts," Hu told troops in Wenchuan county before the shaking prompted him to pause and glance over a hill before he went on, "despite difficulty, weariness and harshness."

The government has not given a figure for the number of people left homeless, but Housing Minister Jiang Weixin said more than 4 million apartments and homes were damaged or destroyed in Sichuan province. He said the water supply situation was "extremely serious" in Sichuan, and not flowing at all in 20 cities and counties.

Caring for the untold tens of thousands or more survivors across the earthquake zone was stretching government resources.

Just north of the provincial capital of Chengdu, the town square in Shifang had become a tent camp for 2,000 people, and coordinator Li Yuanshao reported a lack of tents. Many people walked in from surrounding towns with few belongings.

"We brought almost nothing, only the clothes we are wearing," said Zhang Xinyong, a high school junior who walked several hours to the camp.

The Ministry of Health said there had been no major outbreaks of epidemics or other public health hazards in the earthquake area, according to Xinhua. By late Friday, hospitals in Sichuan had received 116,460 patients, including nearly 16,000 severely injured.

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Ken Teh - AP | Saturday, May 17, 2008 | Topic: Today's Top News

 

Sen. Kennedy hospitalized with stroke symptoms

BOSTON (Reuters) - Sen. Edward Kennedy, was hospitalized on Saturday in Boston after suffering symptoms of a stroke at his family vacation home.

Kennedy, 76, was rushed from the Kennedy compound at Hyannisport, Massachusetts, to Cape Cod Hospital at 9 a.m. (1300 GMT), before being airlifted to Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, hospital officials said.

A Democratic Party aide confirmed that the long-serving Massachusetts senator had stroke-like symptoms.

"He is currently under evaluation," Kennedy's office in Washington said in a statement.

Kennedy, the youngest brother of assassinated U.S. President John F. Kennedy, felt ill at home and went to Cape Cod Hospital. He was sent to Massachusetts General after consultation with his doctors in Boston.

Kennedy's family members had been summoned to Boston, The Boston Globe reported on its Web site, quoting a leading political source.

Kennedy is a leading liberal voice in the United States and has actively campaigned for Barack Obama in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.

"I have been in contact with the family. Obviously they're in our thoughts and prayers," Obama told reporters during a visit to a hospital in Eugene, Oregon.

He said the Kennedy family would likely release a statement about the senator's condition.

"As I've said many times before, Ted Kennedy is a giant in American political history. He's done more for the health care of others than just about anybody in history," Obama said.

"We are going to be rooting for him, and I, I insist on being optimistic about how it's going to turn out," Obama said.

Kennedy has been a vocal critic of Republican President George W. Bush, particularly on his Iraq war, tax cuts for the wealthy and conservative nominees to the U.S. Supreme Court who he fears will push the high court to the right.

But he also worked closely with Republicans on legislation including Republican presidential candidate John McCain on the controversial immigration issue.

"He is a legendary lawmaker ... When we have worked together, he has been a skillful, fair and generous partner. I consider it a great privilege to call him my friend," McCain said in a statement.

HEALTH SCARES

The white-haired senator has had other brushes with ill health. He had preventive surgery at Boston's Massachusetts General Hospital in October to unclog a partially blocked carotid artery in his neck.

The blockage was discovered during a routine check of Kennedy's back and spine, doctors said. A blocked carotid artery can lead to a stroke and death, they said at the time.

Kennedy has suffered from back problems since a plane crash in 1964 in which the pilot and one of Kennedy's aides were killed and the senator was pulled from the wreckage with a back injury, punctured lung, broken ribs and internal bleeding.

Kennedy came to the Senate in November 1962 to fill a seat earlier held by his older brother, then President John Kennedy. He currently serves as chairman of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions.

He ran for the presidency in 1980, but lost the Democratic nomination to President Jimmy Carter who was seeking a second term.

He helped win an increase in the national minimum wage this year and worked with Republicans to produce broad immigration reform, which failed in the Senate after stiff opposition from conservative Republicans.

Edward Moore Kennedy is the last of four sons and five daughters born to millionaire businessman Joseph Kennedy and his wife Rose.

The oldest, Joseph Jr, died as a World War II flier when his bomber exploded over the English Channel. John became America's first and so far only Roman Catholic president in 1960 and was assassinated in 1963. Robert's assassination during the 1968 presidential campaign left Edward leader of the clan.

(Additional reporting by Thomas Ferraro, Charles Abbott and Doina Chiacu in Washington, Jeff Mason in Eugene, Oregon. Writing by Jason Szep. Editing by Jackie Frank)

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Svea Herbst-Bayliss - Reuters | Saturday, May 17, 2008 | Topic: Politics

 

Clinton's female fans wonder what if and when

NEW YORK (AP) - Philipina Heintzman, 81, drove 80 miles across the South Dakota prairie to experience history in the making: a woman running for president, something she never dreamed as a child that she would live to see.

That event, a Hillary Rodham Clinton rally in Bath on Thursday, also marked history unraveling.

As Clinton's prospects sink in the Democratic race, Heintzman and many women like her are feeling the poignant letdown of seeing the first woman with a strong chance at the presidency fall short.

"It would hurt my feelings a lot because I think she should be No. 1, she should be president," Heintzman said of Clinton's likely loss to Barack Obama. "Give a woman a chance to do something good."

From young feminist activists to the grandmothers who embrace Clinton along the rope line at her campaign events, many women who voted in large numbers for the former first lady during the primaries have begun mourning the turn of events. They know their dream of electing a female president this year probably will not come to pass - and wonder when it ever will.

"For us, getting a woman elected is major," said Laurine Glynn, 72, of New York City. "We've waited, fought a lot for this. I do worry that my generation won't see a female president."

"Women are feeling a lot of sadness, disappointment and some anger as they look back at what happened in this race," said Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

And at least part of that anger, Walsh says, is directed at the sexism that some feel seriously harmed the former first lady's candidacy - from T-shirts bearing photos of Clinton and Obama with the slogan "Bros Before Hos" to Hillary Clinton nutcrackers sold in airports.

Women - especially older white women - have been at the center of Clinton's electoral base. During the primaries, she bested Obama among women overall 52-45 percent. Among women over 65, Clinton won by 61 percent to Obama's 34 percent.

Obama advisers note that he defeated Clinton among women in at least 12 states during the primary contest, in part because of overwhelming support for his candidacy among black women. Obama would be the first black president.

And among women under 30, Obama beat Clinton overall by a margin of 56-43 percent - suggesting that they were more inspired by Obama's message of hope and political change than they were by the prospect of electing one of their own.

Paula Horwitz, 84, of Pittsburgh, said some younger women "just don't understand. They'll elect a man, and the men will keep on telling the women what to do." Horwitz displayed a Clinton sign in her front yard for the Pennsylvania primary won by the New York senator.

The generational rift became even more apparent last week, when NARAL Pro-Choice America, a leading abortion rights advocacy organization dominated by white female activists, endorsed Obama over Clinton - producing an outcry among many in the women's movement who felt the group had betrayed one of its own.

Kate Michelman, the former president of NARAL who supports Obama, said Clinton didn't stand for the new direction that voters - including many women - now crave.

"Hillary Clinton represents the status quo at best, and keeps us rooted in a place we need to move from," Michelman said. "I've watched younger women come into their adult lives from a different set of experiences, and Hillary Clinton was not the president to make the transition to the newly inspired movement that we need."

For many women, Clinton's likely fate has also brought nagging questions for the future: Has the former first lady blazed a path, making it easier for the next wave of female candidates? Or has she merely shown how difficult it will be? And who might succeed her?

"What Hillary has done - win, lose or draw - has permanently changed the picture," says Marie Wilson, president of the White House Project, which trains women to run for office. "Next time, we're not going to have to prove that the public will vote for a woman. We won't have to prove competency. She has succeeded at that level."

Wilson pointed to several women with promising political futures who could one day seek the White House: Democratic Govs. Kathleen Sibelius of Kansas and Janet Napolitano of Arizona; Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota; and Republicans like Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and business executive Carly Fiorina. However, none has the name recognition, fundraising network or political connections Clinton was able to draw upon from the early days of her run.

Clinton's pioneering candidacy also won't necessarily mean the next female contender is going to have an easier time of it, warns Walsh.

"It will still be rough for women to come after her," she says. "They'll have to walk that balance of being strong and tough, compassionate and soft. When you're tough, you're called shrill, and the B-word. When you mist over, they say you're weeping."

To feminist writer Linda Hirshman, Clinton's likely defeat signals a harsh reality that future female candidates will need to consider.

"It shows how fragile the loyalty and commitment of women to a female candidate is. That's a pretty scary thing," says Hirshman. "She can count on the female electorate to divide badly and not be reliable."

For their part, Obama advisers said they believe that most of Clinton's female supporters will come their way eventually and won't throw their backing to Republican John McCain. The New York senator has already pledged to work actively on behalf of the Democratic nominee.

Many Clinton supporters hold out hope that Obama might consider choosing Clinton as his running mate. And since she is still relatively young at 60, some can envision another presidential bid.

Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, who is supporting Obama, said his campaign was well aware of the disappointment Clinton's female supporters are likely to feel if she loses the race.

"I think the most important thing is that we stay focused on being incredibly respectful and admiring of who Hillary Clinton is as a person and what she represents as a leader," McCaskill said. "She's run a very strong race and deserves the passionate support she's received. I think the respect in the Obama campaign is genuine - we don't have any problem understanding why millions support Hillary Clinton."

---

Associated Press writer Sara Kugler in South Dakota contributed to this report.

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JOCELYN NOVECK and BETH FOUHY - AP | Saturday, May 17, 2008 | Topic: Breaking Story

 

May 16, 2008

Bin Laden marks Israel anniversary with combat vow

DUBAI (Reuters) - Osama bin Laden vowed in an audio tape to mark Israel's 60th anniversary to continue to fight the Jewish state and its allies in the West.

The al Qaeda leader, who has placed growing emphasis on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, said it was at the heart of the Muslim battle with the West and an inspiration to the 19 bombers who carried out the attacks on U.S. cities on September 11, 2001.

"We will continue, God permitting, the fight against the Israelis and their allies ... and will not give up a single inch of Palestine as long as there is one true Muslim on Earth," he said in the message, posted on an Islamist website on Friday.

Bin Laden said Israel's anniversary celebrations were a reminder that it did not exist 60 years ago, and had been established on land seized from Palestinians by force.

"This is evidence that Palestine is our land, and the Israelis are invaders and occupiers who should be fought," he said in the tape, which was addressed to the Western public.

The Saudi-born militant also said that decades of peace initiatives had failed to establish a Palestinian state, and the West had proved time and again that it sided with Israel.

"The participation of Western leaders with the Jews in this celebration confirms that the West backs this Jewish occupation of our land, and that they stand in the Israeli corner against us," he said. "They proved this in practice by sending their forces to southern Lebanon."

He also said Western media had over the years painted Israelis as victims, and the Palestinians who had been displaced from their land as terrorists.

"CRAZY TERRORIST"

The authenticity of the tape could not immediately be verified but the voice sounded like bin Laden's.

Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Arye Mekel dismissed the tape as the ravings of a terrorist.

"We don't pay any attention to the threats of a crazy terrorist. The time has come for him to be caught and to be punished for all his crimes," Mekel said.

A U.S. official in Washington said the tape was being reviewed to establish if it was genuinely from bin Laden but the content came as no surprise.

"There's been a recent spate of terrorist messages in which Israel has been a central theme -- one that al Qaeda believes resonates in the Muslim world," the official said.

In a message on March 20, bin Laden urged Muslims to maintain the struggle against U.S. forces in Iraq as a path toward "liberating Palestine."

Al Qaeda has vowed attacks on Jews both inside and outside Israel and regularly expresses support for the Palestinians.

Al Qaeda is widely blamed for a suicide attack on an Israeli-owned hotel in Kenya and a simultaneous failed attempt to shoot down an Israeli charter jet near Mombasa airport in Kenya in 2002.

But despite calls by al Qaeda supporters for the militant network to establish a presence in Palestinian areas, U.S. intelligence officials see no evidence it has done so.

Analysts say it faces competition for turf, in particular in the Gaza Strip, from the well-established Hamas.

Bin Laden said the Palestinians in Gaza were being subjected to a "slow death" and blamed U.S.-allied Egypt for helping Israel to besiege the overcrowded Hamas-run area.

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Lin Noueihed - AP | Friday, May 16, 2008 | Topic: Today's Top News

 

Outside groups plot out fall political campaign

WASHINGTON (AP) - For all the money and competitive zeal of this year's presidential contest, Democrats and Republicans are having difficulty financing and organizing the independent groups that supplied so much outside muscle in recent presidential campaigns.

A few independent groups already are active: Ads portraying Obama as weak on terrorism are circulating over the Internet. And messages from organized groups questioning McCain's commitment to veterans and government reform are posted on their Web sites.

But, hindered by tougher regulatory enforcement, a drawn-out primary campaign and cease-and-desist signals from the two front-running candidates, so-called "527" groups - named after a tax code provision - have been slow to coalesce.

Members of Obama's finance team earlier this month urged his donors not to finance the 527 groups, and called on them to instead work with his campaign directly. The message has left many donors and group organizers seeking clarity from the campaign.

On the Republican side, many big dollar donors are not particularly enthusiastic about pouring millions of dollars into outside groups to help McCain, who has been a longtime critic of 527 organizations.

Cleta Mitchell, a campaign finance lawyer who advises such outside groups, said conservatives are not showing much interest in the presidential race, focusing instead on congressional contests and state judicial races.

"To be quite honest, these are grass-root activists and they're not all that enamored with McCain," she said. "This is what they say: 'We need to have as many conservatives as we can scrounge together in every other office because whoever is in the White House we'll probably be fighting with them on a lot of issues.'"

Among Democrats, groups and donors are unwilling to publicly criticize Obama. But they stress that independent organizations need money to carry out their message, not just at the presidential campaign level, but down-ballot as well. They worry Obama may freeze the resources of Democratic-leaning 527 groups and other nonprofit organizations operating in the political arena.

"This is a change election and there needs to be change agents elected in congressional races and in the White House," said David Donnelly, director of Campaign Money Watch, a 527 group that has accused McCain of backing away from his longtime advocacy of legislation limiting the influence of money in politics. "We will be trying to raise and spend money for paid media in races where candidates' positions on reform can be an issue."

Obama aides said they are not trying to cut out groups that are not involved in the presidential contest. But, said Obama spokesman Bill Burton, "We've been clear, if folks want to help out our campaign, they should do it through our campaign."

Some liberal and labor groups, such as MoveOn.org and the Service Employees International Union, are already airing anti-McCain ads paid through their political action committees. But neither Obama nor McCain has aimed criticism at PACs because they operate under stricter fundraising and reporting regulations than 527 groups do. PACS, for instance, cannot receive unlimited donations from wealthy contributors and can't get money from corporations or unions.

What 527 groups ultimately do depends on how lawyers advising these groups interpret a series of Federal Election Commission cases over the past two years that heavily fined 527 organizations that participated in the 2004 presidential election.

Among those fined was the group Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, which raised unsubstantiated allegations about John Kerry's Vietnam war record. The FEC has since adopted rules that say groups can air "issue ads" but can't criticize the character of a candidate.

"We can't do in 2008 what we did in 2004," said Chris LaCivita, a Republican operative who worked on the Swift Boat ad campaign. "Everything has to be issue based."

Donors on either side also have not focused on the general election yet, given that the Democratic contests between Obama and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is still under way. Republican donors, if not ambivalent about McCain's candidacy, have wanted to wait to make sure who the Democratic opponent would be.

At the same time, Republicans fear that the Democratic side will be far better financed. Both Obama and Clinton have proven to be prodigious fundraisers - together raising more than $400 million so far. Labor unions are expected to spend millions during the general election. And liberal donors have set up an overarching 527 group called Fund for America designed to funnel money to various groups participating in this year's election. Already this year, the group distributed more than $5 million to a number of organizations, ranging from VoteVets.org, a veteran's organization critical of the war in Iraq, to America Votes, a voter mobilization group.

A conservative nonprofit group called Freedom's Watch, launched by former White House officials and donors friendly to President Bush, initially formed to be an influential voice in government policy. But it has focused more on congressional elections and has yet to weigh in on presidential politics. Former White House counselor Karl Rove has been mentioned in Republican circles as a possible organizer for a 527 group who could attract donors with his reputation for political mastery.

Both Obama and McCain have criticized outside efforts and have called on groups that organized on their behalf early in the primaries to back off.

Obama's campaign took the unusual step of filing an FEC complaint against fellow Democrats who are backing Clinton's candidacy, claiming their group, the American Leadership Project, was violating campaign finance laws.

On Friday, the McCain campaign issued a "Campaign conflict policy" for its staff that specifically barred any staffer from participating in a 527 group that supports or opposes a presidential candidate. On Thursday, the campaign asked Craig Shirley to step down as a member of McCain's Virginia leadership team because he was behind a 527 group that has been criticizing Clinton and Obama on the Web.

Still, the Republican and Democratic camps view each other warily. In guerrilla fashion, attacks from the left and the right are already under way.

From the left, a Web video distributed by Steve Rosenthal, a Democratic consultant and longtime labor political strategist, makes an issue of McCain's age in song and rhyme. "John McCain is older than the Golden Gate Bridge. He's younger than Bob Dole but only by a smidge."

An ad distributed by e-mail to more than a million conservatives by a group called The National Campaign Fund cites Obama's opposition to the death penalty for gang members in Illinois. "When the time came to get tough, Obama chose to be weak," the ad states. The group is chaired by Floyd Brown, a longtime conservative activist.

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Jim Kuhnhenn - AP | Friday, May 16, 2008 | Topic: Today's Top News

 

Analysis: Obama reacts fast to Bush on diplomacy

In President Bush's hint that Barack Obama wants to appease terrorists, Democrats heard troubling echoes of 2004, when Republicans portrayed John Kerry as irresolute and weak on national security.

Determined to end the similarities there, Obama and his allies counterattacked Friday with a multi-pronged response that was as fast and fierce as Kerry's response to the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ads was slow and uncertain.

And while the Democrats' first-day responses focused on Bush's speech this week in Israel, Friday's reactions mainly targeted John McCain, the GOP presidential candidate who seemed largely on the sidelines at first.

Obama, appearing unusually feisty and at times sarcastic, led the countercharge himself. Campaigning in South Dakota, he departed from planned remarks to rebuke Bush and McCain, and then called a news conference for a second dose.

"I was offended by what is a continuation of a strategy from this White House, now mimicked by Senator McCain, that replaces strategy and analysis and smart policy with bombast, exaggerations and fear-mongering," the Illinois senator said.

Bush's speech Thursday to the Israeli parliament, he said, wasn't about policy.

"It was about politics, about trying to scare the American people," Obama said. "And that's what will not work in this election because the American people can look back at the track record of George Bush, supported by John McCain," and conclude that the nation was misled about the Iraq war's justification, cost, length and benefit to America.

For four years, Democrats have regretted Kerry's halting response to the so-called Swiftboat ads, aired by Bush supporters at a crucial time in their 2004 presidential contest. The ads portrayed Kerry, a decorated Vietnam War veteran, as dishonest and "unfit for command."

Many politicians, including McCain, condemned the ads, and some stations quit airing them. But the $25 million campaign triggered conversations on talk radio, TV programs and front porches nationwide. Swiftboat became part of the political vernacular.

The ads not only undermined Kerry's personal image. They helped divert attention from the Iraq war, whose unpopularity was growing, and they shifted the debate on national security to a broader, more personalized framework that benefited Bush.

Democratic strategists say Bush is trying to give McCain a blueprint for the same tactic, and they are determined to respond more promptly and forcefully.

"Like Bush, McCain knows that he needs to make the election less about the past conduct of the war," said Stephanie Cutter, who was Kerry's 2004 campaign spokeswoman. "He'll go after Obama's trustworthiness, just like Bush went after Kerry's."

But Obama, she said, has shown that he "can give as good as he gets by making McCain responsible for Bush's failures and calling him out for his politically expedient flip-flopping."

The Democratic counterattack against McCain began in earnest early Friday, with a Washington Post op-ed piece touching on Hamas, a Palestinian militant group that the United States considers a terrorist organization. Former Clinton administration State Department official James Rubin wrote that McCain, responding to a TV interview question two years ago about whether U.S. diplomats should work with the Hamas government in Gaza, said:

"They're the government; sooner or later we are going to have to deal with them, one way or another," despite their unpalatable record. Rubin said McCain is "guilty of hypocrisy" and is "smearing" Obama.

The McCain campaign accused Rubin of airing an incomplete portion of the interview but focused its response Friday on Iran, not Hamas.

Campaign spokesman Tucker Bounds said Obama "has pledged to unconditionally meet with Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - who pledges to wipe Israel off the map, denies the Holocaust, sponsors terrorists, arms America's enemies in Iraq and pursues nuclear weapons."

McCain used similar words himself in a speech to the National Rifle Association in Louisville, Ky.

"It is reckless to suggest that unconditional meetings will advance our interests" with Iran, he said.

Obama has said he would pursue talks with Iran without insisting on "preconditions" that would likely prompt Iranian leaders to spurn the request.

Bush started the brouhaha, which dominated Friday's campaign news, with Thursday's speech to Israel's Knesset. After mentioning the president of Iran, he said: "Some seem to believe that we should negotiate with the terrorists and radicals, as if some ingenious argument will persuade them they have been wrong all along."

"We have heard this foolish delusion before," Bush said. "As Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939, an American senator declared: 'Lord, if I could only have talked to Hitler, all this might have been avoided.' We have an obligation to call this what it is - the false comfort of appeasement.'"

It's unclear whether the 2008 campaign will feature attacks comparable to the Swiftboat ads. But if it does, the response is almost certain to be quicker and angrier than anything seen four years ago.

---

EDITOR'S NOTE: Charles Babington covers the presidential campaign for The Associated Press.

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Charles Babington - AP | Friday, May 16, 2008 | Topic: Breaking Story Highlights

 

Florida, Michigan cannot save Clinton

WASHINGTON (AP) - Michigan and Florida alone can't save Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign.

Interviews with those considering how to handle the two states' banished convention delegates found little interest in the former first lady's best-case scenario. Her position, part of a formidable comeback challenge, is that all the delegates be seated in accordance with their disputed primaries.

Even if they were, it wouldn't erase Barack Obama's growing lead in delegates.

The Democratic Party's Rules and Bylaws Committee, a 30-member panel charged with interpreting and enforcing party rules, is to meet May 31 to consider how to handle Michigan and Florida's 368 delegates - both pledged delegates and superdelegates.

Last year, the panel imposed the harshest punishment it could render against the two states after they scheduled primaries in January, even though they were instructed not to vote until Feb. 5 or later. Michigan and Florida lost all their delegates to the national convention, and all the Democratic candidates agreed not to campaign in the two states, stripping them of all the influence they were trying to build by voting early.

But now there is agreement on all sides that at least some of the delegates should be restored in a gesture of party unity and respect to voters in two general election battlegrounds.

Clinton has been arguing for full reinstatement, which would boost her standing. She won both states, even though they didn't count toward the nomination and neither candidate campaigned in them. Obama even had his name pulled from Michigan's ballot.

The Associated Press interviewed a third of the panel members and several other Democrats involved in the negotiations and found widespread agreement that the states must be punished for stepping out of line. If not, many members say, other states will do the same thing in four years.

"We certainly want to be fair to both candidates, and we want to be sure that we are fair to the 48 states who abided by the rules," said Democratic National Committee Secretary Alice Germond, a panel member unaligned with either candidate. "We don't want absolute chaos for 2012.

"We want to reach out to Michigan and Florida and seat some group of delegates in some manner, at least most of us do. These are two critical states for the general (election) and the voters of those states who were not the people who caused this awful conundrum to occur deserve our attention and deserve to be a part of our process and deserve to be at the convention," she said.

Just as Democrats across the country have been divided over which candidate would make the better nominee, most of the panel members also bring personal preferences to the table.

Many are long-standing party officials with close ties to the Clintons. The former first lady has 13 members publicly supporting her, including campaign advisers Harold Ickes and Tina Flournoy who are working to build her delegate count. Eight are openly aligned with Obama. Nine others are officially undeclared.

"We have to have delegates, and they have to be delegations that reflect the opinions of those two states," said former DNC Chairman Don Fowler, a committee member supporting Clinton. "How we get there is very different because everyone sees these questions of who it helps and who it hurts. I don't think the formulation has been found that will get around the piece at this point." But he said a solution is probably possible among the diverse interests.

Because Obama is in the lead for the nomination, his camp heads into the meeting in a position of strength. It is possible the Illinois senator could clinch the nomination by the time the panel meets if he picks up the pace of superdelegate endorsements in the coming weeks.

But Obama has such a lead that he may be able to afford to be generous and give Clinton most of the delegates. That would help put the issue behind them and help him build goodwill in Michigan and Florida heading into the November election.

Still, some think the fairest solution is to disregard the primary votes and split the delegations evenly between the two candidates. Yvonne Gates, a member of Nevada who said she is keeping her candidate preference private until after the meeting so her decision won't be questioned, said she isn't sure what position she would support at the meeting but that it must be fair to both candidates.

"My definition is a 50-50 split is something that is fair," she said. "It cannot be a situation where you give one candidate more votes than the other. In my opinion that wasn't an election when they didn't have a chance to get out and talk to the people of that community."

It's also possible that any vote that recognizes the Michigan and Florida results would legitimize their elections. Clinton has been arguing that she leads in the popular vote, but that's only when both states are included and it is very slim - fewer than 5,000 votes out of 34 million cast.

Her accounting also doesn't include some caucus states that favored Obama and where the popular vote wasn't tallied. The measure of winning the nomination is not the popular vote but whoever can get the majority of delegates - currently 2,026 are needed for the nomination although adding Michigan and Florida back in would change the threshold.

Obama climbed to 1,904 on Friday, according to The Associated Press count. Clinton has 1,719 delegates and is trying to use the popular vote argument to win over more.

Clinton encouraged supporters in an e-mail Friday to sign a message to the DNC asking them to count Michigan and Florida in the May 31 meeting. "I need you to remind them that in the Democratic Party, we count every vote," her e-mail said.

Fourteen of Clinton's Hispanic supporters in Congress sent a letter to the Rules and Bylaws Committee Friday arguing that disregarding the votes cast by Hispanics, 12 percent of the primary vote in Florida, could damage the nominee.

So far, Obama's campaign has not been giving direction publicly or privately to panel members. The Clinton campaign's official position has been full reinstatement, but her advisers acknowledge they are considering an idea before the panel to seat the delegates with half a vote each. Clinton campaign Chairman Terry McAuliffe said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press" that they "certainly might" accept a compromise to seat half the delegates.

If their elections had been held according to party rules, Michigan and Florida would have allocated a total of 313 pledged delegates based on the outcome of the vote.

Using the results of the January elections with no votes for Obama from Michigan, Clinton would get 178 to Obama's 67, with the remainder in Michigan who voted "uncommitted" and giving her a 111-vote advantage. The remainder of the 368 delegates includes those representing the "uncommitted" vote in Michigan and John Edwards in Florida, along with superdelegates.

As of Friday, she was behind 185 delegates, so that would not catch her up even under that unlikely scenario.

The plans before the committee will be more generous to Obama. The Michigan Democratic Party has proposed giving 69 of its 128 delegates to Clinton and 59 to Obama, an advantage of 10 delegates for Clinton.

A proposal from Florida would halve its 185 delegates. From that, Clinton would get 52.5 and Obama 33.5, a 19-delegate advantage for Clinton.

"I think it's a reasonable solution to the problem that was created, and my hope is that we'll be able to get past this and move on," said Allan Katz, an Obama supporter who serves on the panel but won't be able to vote on any Florida solution because he is from the state.

The committee is not bound to select the proposals offered and has authority to reinstate any number of delegates and divide them in any way.

An open question is how to handle the other type of delegates each state lost - the superdelegates who are party leaders not bound by the outcome of the vote and are free to support whatever candidate they personally choose. Michigan has 29 superdelegates, and Florida 26. A total of nine have declared for Obama, 15 for Clinton and the rest are undeclared.

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Nedra Pickler - AP | Friday, May 16, 2008 | Topic: Breaking Story